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DEBKAfile Exclusive Analysis
November 22, 2008
Sejil: Iran's newest test-fired ballistic missile
The most up-to-date intelligence predictions of US nuclear experts is that by the end of 2009, Iran will have stocked enough weapons-grade fuel to build three nuclear bombs. The first will be ready for assembly by the time Barack Obama is sworn in as US president on January 20, 2009; the second shortly after Israel’s February 10, 2009 general election produces a new prime minister, and the third by the end of the year. Iran may deny the latest IAEA conclusion that it has stockpiled 630 kg of low-enriched uranium, enough to upgrade a nuclear weapon. But Tehran’s limited on-and-off cooperation with the nuclear watchdog leaves it wide open to the suspicion of a secret location churning out enriched uranium far from the declared Natanz facility. So what happened to the pledges made by the world powers over the years to keep nuclear weapons out of the Islamic Republic’s hands, including declarations by US and Israeli leaders that their military options remained “on the table?” Those...
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November 1, 2008
Moshe Yaalon, a hawk from the kibbutz movement
Former prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu, energized by more than two years in opposition, is launching his Likud party into Israel’s general election campaign with a new look and a new top echelon. DEBKAfile’s political sources report he is remolding it into a center-right party with a new leadership made up of the middle generation of Likud stalwarts and an infusion of outsiders from non-political occupations, rival parties, and at least two ex-generals. Negotiating in person, he is close to deals with a mixed bag of would-be star performers. They include, according to our exclusive sources, Benny Begin (son of the late prime minister Menahem Begin), Yair Shamir , Dan Meridor , former chief of staff, Lt. Gen. (Res) Moshe Yaalon , NU lawmaker Effie Eyta (a former general, who holds the key to the national religious vote), and former cabinet minister Nathan Sharansky , who is well-connected in Washington. Likud has also offered incentives to MKs Zeev...
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November 1, 2008
Russian Iskander-E missile
The Russian-Syrian discussions in progress in both their capitals cover the disposition of air defense S-300PMU-2 and Iskander-E missiles – to be deployed initially around Syria’s Mediterranean ports where Moscow is building naval bases. DEBKAfile’s military and intelligence sources reveal that these two high-powered items have not been excluded from the big Russian-Syrian arms deal under discussion, despite appeals from Washington and Israeli prime minister Ehud Olmert, who made a special trip to Moscow for this purpose earlier this month. As soon as he flew home, the foreign ministry spokesman in Moscow maintained ambiguously on Oct. 9 that Russia would not supply air defense systems to “volatile regions.” He said such decisions are based on regional security issues and “the need to maintain a balance of forces” in the region. This was taken to mean that if weapons delivered to Israel were seen by Moscow as upsetting “the balance of forces,” Moscow would think again about...
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DEBKAfile Special Analysis
November 24, 2008
Israel defense minister holds chief of staff in check
“To all the warmongers among you I say I am not minister of war but minister of defense.” This emotional statement was delivered by Ehud Barak Monday, Nov. 24, to his many critics at a briefing session of the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Security Committee. He went on to lambast Iran for its energetic pursuit of its nuclear program while deceiving the world. Israel does not rule out any option against a nuclear-armed Iran, he said, “but the less said about this better.” DEBKAfile’s military sources suggest that Barak take his own advice. While never short of words and promises, his performance in deeds is seriously wanting. Minutes after he spoke, the Society for Recording Terror-Induced Trauma Cases published figures which should have made him rethink his positions: 55% of Sderot’s citizens had witnessed Qassam missile blasts; 28.4% were made dysfunctional by post-traumatic effects; while 33.6% of the town’s schoolchildren aged 13-18 suffered from severe learning disabilities. ...
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DEBKAfile Exclusive Analysis
November 8, 2008
Israeli tanks in Gaza
The strategy the Islamic regime has charted for the new US president hinges on fanning tensions on Israel’s northern and southern borders while putting a damper on the various Middle East peace initiatives. Syria was therefore discouraged from returning to its indirect peace track with Israel and Hamas ordered to boycott Egypt’s bid to patch up the quarrel between the Palestinian factions Hamas and Fatah. Tehran’s object is to show Barack Obama who holds the whip hand in the Middle East and force him to seek urgent talks to defuse rising tensions. At his first news conference as president elect, Obama said Friday, Nov. 7, that Iran’s pursuit of nuclear weapons was “unacceptable” and its support for terrorist organizations “must cease.” He ducked a reporter’s question about whether he had read the letter of congratulation sent him by Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and when he would answer. But Iran had already laid out its strategy for the incoming president, jumping in the day before the US...
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From DEBKA-Net-Weekly updated by DEBKAfile
November 8, 2008
 To subscribe to DEBKA-Net-Weekly click HERE . As part of the incipient thaw in US relations with Damascus, US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice has relayed a friendly message to Hamas political leader Khalid Meshaal through Syrian foreign minister Walid Muallem’s aides. The message, described by Moussa Abu Marzouk, one of the heads of Hamas’ Damascus headquarters, as a “verbal communication.” was received as four Syrian divisions completed their deployment on Lebanon’s borders last week (see exclusive map). In the message, Rice praised the Palestinian terrorist group for halting its missile fire into Israel. DEBKA-Net-Weekly 369 of Oct. 24 exposed the complete deployment - from the Syrian 4th Division along Lebanon’s northern border and the 10th, 12th and 14th Divisions on Lebanon’s eastern frontier opposite the Hermil mountains and the Beqaa Valley, and down to...
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